The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024 The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised up significantly from a 0.2% decline to a rise of 1.4%. Such are the vagaries of economic data. The Canadian economy is contracting despite the […]

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked Today’s inflation report showed a continued improvement, mainly due to falling year-over-year (y/y) gasoline prices. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% y/y, down from the 3.8% rise in September. There were no surprises here, so markets moved little on the news. Excluding […]

Home Sales Plummet In October Housing affordability is the number-one issue causing the significant decline in housing activity, adding to PM Justin Trudeau’s political problems. With the growing impact of unaffordable housing and the slowing labour market, activity in the real estate market should remain subdued for the rest of this year. Home sales dropped 5.6% month-over-month […]

Weak October Jobs Report Likely Takes Further BoC Rate Hikes Off The Table Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for October was weak across the board. Total job gains were meagre, full-time jobs fell, hours worked were flat, wage inflation eased (a bit), and the unemployment rate rose. Employment changed little in October, up only 17,500 (0.1%), […]

Hawkish Hold By The Bank of Canada The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, as was widely expected. The central bank continues to normalize its balance sheet through quantitative tightening, reducing its Government of Canada bonds holdings. The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) detailed a slowdown in global economic growth […]

Good News On the Inflation Front Suggests Policy Rates Have Peaked Today’s inflation report for September was considerably better than expected, ending the three-month rise in inflation. Not only did the headline inflation rate fall, but so did the core measures of inflation on a year-over-year basis and a three-month moving average basis. This, in […]

Increasing Mortgage Rates Weighed Heavily On Housing In September Mortgage rates continued to rise in September after BoC tightening and one of the largest bond selloffs in history. Yields have retraced some of their rise more recently, but demand for new and existing homes has slowed. According to data released by the Canadian Real Estate […]

August Inflation Hotter Than Expected Canada’s inflation rate accelerated more than expected for the second consecutive month, mainly driven by higher gasoline prices. This will not be a one-month wonder as gasoline prices rose further in September. The consumer price index increased 4.0% in August from one year ago, the fastest pace since April, after a […]

Home Sales Dipped Once Again Last Month In The Wake of Two Consecutive BoC Rate Hikes Not surprisingly, buyers moved to the sidelines last month as the central bank took the overnight policy rate up to 5.0%. Home sales posted a 4.1% decline between July and August, well below the 10-year moving average shown in […]

August Jobs Report Beat Expectations Following a marked decline in employment in July, Statistics Canada reported a gain of 40,000 net new jobs in August. Hiring increased in professional, scientific and technical services and construction and declined in educational services and manufacturing. Population growth outpaced the growth in net new employment, depressing the employment rate […]