Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Acknowledging Economic Slowdown

With last Friday’s publication of the anemic second-quarter GDP data, it was obvious that the Bank of Canada would refrain from raising rates at today’s meeting. Economic activity declined by 0.2% in Q2; the first quarter growth estimate decreased from 3.1% to 2.6%.

Today’s press release announced, “The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures.” The Q2 slowdown in output reflected a “marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%.”

Lest we get too comfy with a more dovish stance in monetary policy, the central bank warned that the Governing Council remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability.

Inflationary pressures remain broad-based. CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in July after falling to 2.8% in June. Much of the rise in July was caused by the statistical base effect. Nevertheless, current harbingers of inflation remain troubling. The increase in gasoline prices in August will boost inflation soon before easing again. “Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now running at about 3.5%, indicating little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability.”

The Bank also continues to normalize its balance sheet by letting maturing bonds run off. This quantitative tightening keeps upward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

Tiff Macklem and company concede that excess demand is diminishing and the labour markets are easing. The unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in July, up from a cycle low of 4.9%, and job vacancies continue to decline. Net exports have slowed, and the Chinese economy has weakened sharply. Consumers are tightening their belts as the saving rate rose and household spending slowed markedly in Q1.

Monetary policy actions have a lagged effect on the economy. As mortgage renewals rise, peaking in 2026, the economic impact of higher interest rates will grow. Homeowners renewing mortgages this year are seeing roughly a doubling in interest rates.

The Governing Council will focus on the movement in excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate price decisions.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada, though independent, is coming under increasing political pressure. In an unusual move, the premiers of both BC and Ontario have publicly called for a cessation of rate hikes. Even so, the BoC is keeping its hawkish bias to avoid a bond rally that could trigger another boost in the housing market, similar to what we saw last April. The government bond yield is hovering just under 5%, having breached that level recently with the release of robust US economic data.

There are two more meetings before the end of this year, and many are expecting another rate hike in one of those meetings. The odds of this are less than even, given the downward momentum in the economy.

The central bank’s next decision is due October 25, after two releases of jobs, inflation and retail data, gross domestic product numbers for July and an August estimate.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Rate Hikes Are Definitely Off The Table

The Canadian economy weakened surprisingly more in the second quarter than the market and the Bank of Canada expected. Real GDP edged downward by a 0.2% annual rate in Q2. The consensus was looking for a 1.2% rise. The modest decline followed a downwardly revised 2.6% growth pace in Q1. (Originally, Q1 growth was posted at 3.1%.) According to the latest monthly data, growth dipped by 0.2% in June, and the advance estimate for economic growth in July was essentially unchanged. This implies that the third quarter got off to a weak start.

The Bank of Canada forecasted growth of 1.5% in Q2 and Q3 in its latest Monetary Policy Report released in July. The central bank is now justified in pausing interest rate hikes when it meets again on September 6th. Today’s report is consistent with the recent rise in unemployment. It suggests that excess demand is diminishing, even when accounting for such special dampening factors as the expansive wildfires and the BC port strike.

Some details of Q2 Growth

Housing investment fell 2.1% in Q2, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline, led by a sharp drop in new construction and renovations. No surprise, given the higher borrowing costs and lower demand for mortgage funds, as the BoC raised the overnight rate to 4.75% in Q2. Despite higher mortgage rates, home resale activity rose in Q2, posting the first increase since the last quarter of 2021.

Significantly, the growth in consumer spending slowed appreciably in Q2 and was revised downward in Q1.

Bottom Line

The weakness in today’s data release may be a harbinger of the peak in interest rates. Inflation is still an issue, but the 5% policy rate should be high enough to return inflation to its 2% target in the next year or so. As annual mortgage renewals peak in 2026, the increase in monthly payments will further slow economic activity and break the back of inflation.

The Bank of Canada will be slow to ease monetary policy, cutting rates only gradually–likely beginning in the middle of next year. In the meantime, the central bank will continue to assert its determination to do whatever it takes to achieve sustained disinflationary forces.

Today’s release of the US jobs report for August supports the view that the Canadian overnight rate has peaked at 5%. (The Canadian jobs report is due next Friday). Though the headline number of job gains in the US came in at a higher-than-expected 187,000, the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% as labour force participation picked up, growth in hourly wages was modest, and job gains in June and July were revised downward.

In Canada, 5-year bond yields have fallen to 3.83%, well below their recent peak shown in the chart below.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Housing Market Sales Dipped in July, Spooked By Rate Hikes

According to Shaun Cathcart, the Canadian Real Estate Association’s Senior Economist, “Following a brief surge of activity in April, housing markets have settled down in recent months, with price growth now also moderating with its usual slight lag. Sales and price growth are already showing signs of tapering off further in August in response to the Bank of Canada’s mid-July rate hike and messaging regarding above-target inflation for longer than previously expected. We’re probably looking at another round of back to the sidelines for some buyers until there’s a higher level of certainty around interest rates going forward.”

The good news is that the July inflation data, released today, will likely keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines as core inflation has finally begun to slow. A host of economic indicators also point to Q2 GDP growth–released September 1–slowing to around 1% following the stronger-than-expected 3.1% growth in the first quarter. Labour market tightening eased in July with the decline in employment, rise in unemployment and continued downtrend in job vacancies. The central bank also welcomes the slowdown in the housing market.

Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems posted a small 0.7% decline between June and July 2023. Activity has been showing signs of stabilizing since May. While sales increased in July in more than half of all local markets, a decline in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) tipped the national figure slightly negative. Sales were also down in the Fraser Valley, which, together with the GTA, offset gains in Montreal, Edmonton and Calgary.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes was up 5.6% monthly in July. Building on gains of 2.8% in April, 7.9% in May, and 5.9% in June, new listings have gone from a 20-year low in March to closer to (but still below) average levels by mid-summer.

With new listings outperforming sales in July, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 59.2% compared to 63% in June and a recent peak of 68% in April. That said, the measure remains above the long-term average of 55.2%.

There were 3.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of July 2023, up slightly from 3.1 months in May and June.

While this was the first month-over-month increase since January, this measure is still a full month below where it was at the beginning of 2023 and almost two months below the long-term average for this measure (about five months).

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) climbed 1.1% month-over-month in July 2023—a larger-than-normal increase for a single month but only about half as large as the gains recorded in April, May, and June. This aligns with sales having leveled off as new listings have been recovering.

Despite the smaller gain at the national level, a monthly price increase between June and July was still observed in most local markets, as has been the case since April.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI now sits just 1.5% below year-ago levels, the smallest decline since October 2022. Year-over-year comparisons will likely tip back into positive territory in the months ahead because prices continued to decline through the second half of 2022.

Bottom Line

With interest stabilizing, housing activity will gradually increase as more supply comes onto the market. The Bank of Canada will likely cut rates in 25 bps increments by June next year. Without a doubt, that will be good news for the housing market.

There remains huge excess demand for housing due to the rapid population growth. While the federal and provincial governments are working hard to increase the supply of affordable housing, the process is painfully slow and is unlikely to come close to the demand for homes for purchase or rent for the foreseeable future.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

July Headline Inflation Rose to 3.3%, But Core Inflation Improved

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% y/y in July, up from a 2.8% rise in June. The acceleration in headline inflation was widely expected due to a base-year effect on gasoline prices, as a sizeable monthly decline in July 2022 (-9.2%) no longer impacts the 12-month movement. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.1% from 4.0% in June.

The mortgage interest cost index (+30.6%) posted another record year-over-year gain and remained the most significant contributor to headline inflation. The all-items excluding mortgage interest cost index rose 2.4% in July.

The CPI rose 0.6% in July, following a 0.1% gain in June, mainly due to higher monthly prices for travel tours, with July being a peak travel month. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5%.

Food price inflation eased last month but remains sticky.​

The core inflation measures will hearten the Bank of Canada. CPI-trim eased to 3.6% y/y in July, continuing the downtrend following the November 2022 peak. CPI-median held steady at 3.7%.

The sizable slowdown in other economic indicators suggests that Q2 GDP growth slowed to roughly 1.0% in the second quarter–markedly below the 3.1% pace posted in Q1. Labour markets are also easing with a meaningful drop in job vacancies and a rising unemployment rate.

Bottom Line

It is now likely that when the Bank of Canada meets again on September 6, the Governing Council will announce a pause in rate hikes. They will promise to remain ever vigilant, but there is a good chance that the overnight policy rate has peaked at 5%–up 1900% since March 2022.

We will unlikely see the first drop in the policy rate until June of next year. The Bank will proceed slowly, taking rates down by 25 bp increments. The low in the policy rate will probably be around 3%, well above the pre-pandemic level of 1.75%.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

The Long-Awaited Labour Market Slowdown

The Canadian economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, far weaker than the 25,000 gain that was expected. The jobless rate was 5.5%, the third consecutive monthly rise. This likely improves the chances the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines in September.

Wage inflation, however, re-accelerated, moving back to 5.0%. This, combined with the continued stickiness in core inflation, will keep interest rates high for longer.

July’s data follows a surprise gain of 59,900 in June and a 17,300 loss in May, showing that employment is a notoriously volatile series. Nevertheless, it provides the fodder for Macklem to pause again after two consecutive rate hikes.

A downturn in June’s manufacturing, wholesale, and retail data has buoyed the Bank’s hopes that the 475 basis point rate hikes have slowed the economy, especially as preliminary figures for June showed the economy contracting for the first time this year. Inflation rates for the same month moderated to 2.8%, fitting within the central bank’s target range for the first time since March 2021.

Policymakers scrutinize indicators to determine if the current interest rates are sufficiently high to temper economic growth. They perceive substantial wage increases as inconsistent with their goal of reducing inflation to the 2% target. Even amidst recent significant strikes from workers demanding improved remuneration, the outlook hints at a potential slowdown in wage growth. This could be driven by increased immigration, which expands the workforce while the demand for labour diminishes.

Bottom Line

The chances of a rate hike on September 6 have diminished significantly. However, more data is yet to come with July inflation on August 15 and the Q2 GDP figure on September 1.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Canadian Inflation Falls Within Bank of Canada’s Target Range; Food and Shelter Costs Remain High

June inflation data released today by Statistics Canada showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year (y/y), slightly below expectations. This was the lowest CPI reading since February 2022.

The decline in inflation was mainly due to lower energy prices, which fell by 21.6% y/y. Without this decline, headline CPI inflation would have been 4.0%. The year-over-year decrease resulted from elevated prices in June 2022 amid higher global demand for crude oil as China, the largest importer of crude oil, eased some COVID-19 public health restrictions. In June 2023, consumers paid 1.9% more at the pump compared with May.

Food and shelter costs remained the two most significant contributors to inflation, rising by 9.1% y/y and 4.8% y/y, respectively. Food prices at stores have risen nearly 20% in the past two years, the most significant rise in over 40 years. Shelter inflation rose slightly from 4.7% y/y in May.

The largest contributors within the food component were meat (+6.9%), bakery products (+12.9%), dairy products (+7.4%) and other food preparations (+10.2%). Fresh fruit prices grew at a faster pace year over year in June (+10.4%) than in May (+5.7%), driven, in part, by a 30.0% month-over-month increase in the price of grapes.

Food purchased from restaurants continued to contribute to the headline CPI increase, albeit at a slower year-over-year pace in June (+6.6%) than in May (+6.8%).

Services inflation cooled to 4.2% y/y from 4.8% y/y in May. This was due to smaller increases in travel tours and cellular services.

The Bank of Canada’s target range for inflation is 1% to 3%. While June’s inflation reading was within the target range, it is still higher than the Bank would like. The Bank raised the overnight policy rate twice in the past two months to reduce the stickier elements of inflation.

There were signs of easing price pressures for consumer goods also. Durable goods inflation continued to cool to 0.8% y/y in June. Passenger vehicle prices rose slower in June (+2.4%) than in May (+3.2%). The year-over-year slowdown resulted from a base-year effect, with a 1.5% month-over-month increase in June 2022 replaced with a more minor 0.6% month-over-month increase in June 2023. This coincided with improved supply chains and inventories compared with a year ago. Household furniture and equipment was up only 0.1% y/y in June, down from a peak of 10.5% last June.

The June inflation data provides some relief to consumers, but it is clear that food and shelter costs remain a major concern. The Bank of Canada will closely monitor inflation in the coming months to see if it is on track to return to its 2% target. There is another CPI report before the Bank meets again on September 6th.

The Bank of Canada’s underlying inflation measures cooled further in May. CPI-trim eased to 3.7%y/y in June from 3.8% y/y in May, and CPI-median registered 3.9% versus 4.0% y/y in May. The chart below shows the closely watched measure of underlying price pressures, the three-month moving average annualized of the core measures of CPI. They continue to be just under 4%.

Canadian inflation continued to make encouraging progress in June. However, the cooling in headline inflation benefits from sizeable base effects due to the favourable comparison to high energy prices last June. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is watching its preferred core measures, which continue to show glacial progress.

Bottom Line

It takes time for the full effect of interest rate hikes to feed into the CPI. Mortgage interest costs will continue to rise as higher interest rates flow gradually through to household mortgage payments with a lag as contracts are renewed.

BoC Governor Macklem emphasized last week that the Bank has become worried about the persistence of underlying inflation pressures in the economy. The June inflation data likely provides some reassurance that things are moving in the right direction, but not fast enough for the Bank of Canada to let its guard down.

The BoC is facing a difficult balancing act. It needs to raise interest rates enough to bring inflation under control, but it also needs to be careful not to raise rates so high that it causes a recession. The next few months will be critical for the BoC as it assesses the risks of inflation and recession.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Bank of Canada June Rate Hike Spooks the Housing Market

The Canadian Real Estate Association says the BoC’s surprise rate hike in early June cooled activity following a two-month solid start to the spring housing season. Home sales posted a 1.5% gain between May and June, tepid by recent standards. Sales were up in June in a little over half of all local markets, with increases in British Columbia and Alberta offsetting fewer sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

On a year-over-year (y/y) basis, the number of transactions in June grew by 4.7%. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “History suggests the price side of things will respond to this with only a slight lag. Add to that the recent Bank of Canada rate hikes, and we can probably expect price growth to be moderate in the months ahead, likely still with some degree of upward pressure, but less than in the last three months.”

The CREA cut its forecast for home sales this year as tight inventory, and the rate hikes weigh on the housing market. The CREA now estimates that sales in 2023 will be down 6.8% from a year earlier, a more dramatic slowdown than the 1.1% decline forecast in April.

“With the Bank of Canada unexpectedly ending its pause on rate hikes in June and hiking again in July, a major source of uncertainty has returned to the housing market,” the CREA said.

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes was up 5.9% month-over-month in June. Building on gains of 3.1% in April and 7.6% in May, new listings have gone from a 20-year low in March to closer to (but still below) average heading into the summer.

With new listings outperforming sales in June, the sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 63.6% compared to 66.4% in May and a recent peak of 68.3% in April. The measure remains well above the long-term average of 55.2%.

There were 3.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of June 2023, unchanged from the end of May and down more than an entire month from the most recent peak at the end of January. The long-term average for this measure is about five months.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) climbed 2% month-over-month in June 2023—a significant increase for a single month on the heels of similar gains in April and May. It was again very broadly based, with a monthly price increase between May and June observed in most local markets.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI now sits 4.5% below year-ago levels, the smallest decline since November 2022.

Bottom Line

Home construction in Calgary, the home to the Canadian energy industry headquarters, is booming, driven by a rush of newcomers from abroad, as well as from more expensive housing markets in the rest of Canada.

Home prices in Calgary have risen 4.2% in a year, the most significant rise among the more than 50 markets the CREA tracks. It’s the only major Canadian city to experience any increase at all. The benchmark price in the city has risen 34% in three years.

Alberta’s population was 4.7 million as of April 1, up 4.5% in 12 months, trailing only tiny Prince Edward Island for the fastest growth among Canada’s provinces. In the first quarter, Alberta had the largest net interprovincial gain — almost 15,800 people — of the country’s provinces and territories. International migration contributed to nearly 36,000 new residents.

Unlike previous surges in Alberta’s population driven by the oil industry’s demand for labour, this boom is happening during a relatively tame period for the province’s most important industry.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Interest Rates Will Stay Higher For Longer

The Bank of Canada increased the overnight policy rate by 25 basis points this morning to 5.0%, its highest level since March 2001. Never before has a policy action been so widely expected. Still, the Bank’s detailed outlook in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) suggests stronger growth and a longer trajectory to reach the 2% inflation target. The Bank of Canada believes the economy is still in excess demand and that growth will continue stronger than expected, supported by tight labour markets, the high level of accumulated household savings, and rapid population growth. “Newcomers to Canada are entering the labour force, easing the labour shortage. But at the same time, they add to consumer spending and demand for housing.”

The Bank forecasts GDP growth to average 1.0% through the middle of next year–a soft landing in the economy. “This means the economy moves into modest excess supply in early 2024, and this should relieve price pressures. CPI inflation is forecast to remain about 3% for the next year, before declining gradually to the 2% target in the middle of 2025.” This is about six months later than the Bank expected in April. This means that high-interest rates remain higher for longer.

While Canadian inflation has fallen quickly, much of the downward momentum has come from lower energy prices and base-year effects as large price increases last year fall out of the year-over-year inflation calculation. We are still seeing large price increases in a wide range of goods and services. Our measures of core inflation—which we use to gauge underlying inflationary pressures—have come down, but not as much as we expected.

There continue to be large price increases in a wide range of goods and services. Measures of core inflation have come down, but by less than expected (see chart below). One measure of core inflation–which removes food, energy and shelter prices, remains elevated and will likely continue to be sticky.

To remove base effects, the Bank looks at three-month rates of core inflation, which have remained at 3.5% to 4.0% since September 2022, almost a percentage point above the Bank’s expectations at the beginning of this year.

In addition, labour markets remain tight. Although the jobless rate has risen to 5.4%, that is still low by historical standards. The unemployment rate was at 5.7% when the pandemic began, which was considered close to full employment at the time. Job gains have been robust, with about 290,000 net new jobs created in the first six months of 2023. Many new entrants to the labour market have been hired quickly, and wage growth has been about 4% to 5%.

The faster-than-expected pickup in housing resales, combined with a lack of supply, has pushed house prices higher than anticipated by the Bank of Canada in January (see chart below). According to the MPR, “the previously unforeseen strength in house prices is likely to persist and boost inflation by as much as 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2023, compared with the January outlook.”

Bottom Line

As always, the next steps by the Bank of Canada will be data-dependent. Interest rates will remain higher for longer if the Bank is correct that inflation will not reach its 2% target until 2025. We also cannot rule out more rate hikes in the future. This morning, the US inflation data for June were released, showing a marked decline from 4% in May to 3% in June. Markets rallied worldwide, taking Canadian bond yields down despite the BoC tightening. The hardship caused by the continued rise in mortgage rates is already evident. OSFI recently announced the possibility of higher capital requirements for federally insured financial institutions on mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 65% that have unusually high amortizations. This proposal is now out for consultation. It seems OSFI and the federal consumer watchdog are working at cross purposes.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

It’s a Close Call Which Way the Bank Will Go

Employment growth last month came in at a whopping 60,000 jobs, tripling expectations, and most of those net new jobs were for full-time workers. As our population grows, more people are available to fill job vacancies. Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+33,000), manufacturing (+27,000), health care and social assistance (+21,000) and transportation and warehousing (+10,000). Meanwhile, declines were recorded in construction (-14,000), educational services (-14,000) and agriculture (-6,000).

The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.4% in June, following a similar increase (+0.2 percentage points) in May. The increase brought the rate to its highest level since February 2022 (when it was also 5.4%). There were 1.1 million people unemployed in June, an increase of 54,000 (+4.9%) in the month.

The population grew by 0.3%, the labour force rose by 0.5%, and employment increased by 0.3%. The participation rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 65.7%.

Despite the successive increases in May and June, the unemployment rate in Canada remained below its pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of 5.7% recorded in the 12 months to February 2020.

One thing the Bank of Canada will be happy about is that wage inflation slowed to 4.2% on a year-over-year basis following four consecutive months of more than 5% wage growth. This is good news for the Bank, but not good enough given that wages are still rising at more than double the inflation target of 2.0%.

Bottom Line

Traders are now betting that there is a 70% chance that the Bank of Canada will hike the policy rate by 25 basis points on July 12, taking the overnight rate to 5.0%. Given that many consumers are feeling the pinch of rising prices, and the June housing data appears to have softened, at least in the GTA, the Bank could surprise us again by remaining on the sidelines. After all, inflation fell to 3.4% in May, and the Business Outlook Survey softened broadly, particularly regarding hiring intentions.

In contrast, the latest monthly GDP report showed an uptick in growth in May. Remembering that Q1 growth came in nearly one percentage point above the Bank’s forecast in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and all six Canadian bank economists are forecasting a rate hike, the Bank might want to take out a bit more insurance that inflation will return to the 2% target next year.

A fresh MPR will accompany next week’s policy announcement and press conference. It’s unclear which way the Bank will go, but the odds favour a rate hike.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Will the May Inflation Decline Thwart Another Rate Hike in July?

The May inflation data, released this morning by Statistics Canada, bore no surprises. The year-over-year (y/y) inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.4% was just as expected–down a full percentage point from the April reading. This is the smallest increase since June 2021. Economists hit this one on the head because we knew dropping the April 2022 figure from the y/y calculation would considerably lower May inflation.

By May of last year, y/y  inflation had already risen sharply to 7.7%, mainly due to dramatic energy price increases reflecting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Inflation peaked at 8.1% in June ’22, suggesting low inflation next month as well. This is why the Bank of Canada predicted that inflation would fall to 3% by this summer.

Taking inflation down to 3% will likely be easier than the drop from 3% to 2% because the low-hanging fruit has already been harvested. Many service prices are a lot stickier than the price of commodities and durable goods.

The May inflation slowdown was primarily driven by the 18.3% y/y plunge in gasoline prices resulting from the base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.4% in May, following a 4.9% increase in April. A drop in natural gas prices (-3.5%) also contributed to the energy price deceleration.

Prices for durable goods grew at a slower pace year over year in May, rising 1.0% after increasing 2.2% in April. The increase in May is the smallest since May 2020 and coincided with easing supply chain pressures compared with a year ago. This was reflected in furniture prices (-2.9%), which fell by the largest amount since June 2020, and passenger vehicle prices (+3.2%), which showed the smallest increase since February 2021.

Grocery prices remain elevated–up 9.0% y/y–down only one tick from April. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose slightly faster year-over-year in May (+6.8%) than in April (+6.4%), amid ongoing elevated labour shortages, input costs and expenses, which Stats Can data show job vacancies can disproportionately affect these businesses.

Rising interest rates also boost inflation. This is because mortgage costs are just over 3% of the CPI. They are a part of the most significant component of the index–shelter–which represents almost 30% of the index. The mortgage interest cost index rose by a whopping 29.9% in May, following a 28.5% increase in April. This was the largest increase on record for the third consecutive month, as Canadians continued to renew and initiate mortgages at higher interest rates. And, of course, this does not include the effects of the policy rate hike in June.

It takes time for the full effect of interest rate hikes entirely feed into the CPI. Mortgage interest costs will continue to rise as higher interest rates flow gradually through to household mortgage payments with a lag as contracts are renewed. And home-buying related expenses ticked higher in May, with higher home resale prices increasing realtor and broker commissions.

Bottom Line

Achieving the 2% inflation target will take some effort. The Bank of Canada continues to be concerned that the Canadian economy remains too hot. Although unemployment relative to job vacancies has recently started to rise, the Bank remains troubled that excess demand will continue to push some prices upward. This is the cyclical component of inflation–inversely correlated with the unemployment rate–a version the Fed calls ‘supercore’ inflation. Supercore includes household services such as haircuts, personal care, babysitting, restaurant meals, travel, accommodation, recreation and entertainment.

It is roughly the CPI-trim (which filters out extreme price movements that might be caused by severe weather and other temporary factors) minus the price of food, shelter and energy. This measure has fallen less than the other core measures. Supercore inflation is about 5.5% y/y, compared to CPI-trim at 3.8%,CPI- median at 3.9% (see the chart below).

Looking at the recent monthly trends on a three-month annualized basis, CPI-trim was at 3.8% in May, down from 3.9%, and CPI-median was at 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April.

This is why the Bank of Canada emphasizes labour market data and overall spending measures. We will get two more important Statistics Canada releases before the July 12th BoC decision: the June 30th  monthly GDP number for April and the all-important Labour Force Survey on July 7th. Unless these data show a meaningful economic slowdown or a rise in unemployment, the odds of another BoC rate hike are about 60%.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres